TATA leaves C&W Worldwide a sinking ship

Tata Communications 11th hour withdrawal from negotiations with Cable & Wireless Worldwide sent the troubled companies shares into free-fall yesterday and left the way clear for Vodafone to snap up a bit of a bargain.

The estimated breakup value of Cable & Wireless is estimated to be around £2 1/2 billion, approximately £.90 per share. This may have led to the Cable & Wireless board to reject the £.42 a share offer made by Tata.  With CW shares standing at £.31 each as I type this, you wonder if they've gained anything.

Over the years of watching the ups and downs and further downs of Cable & Wireless it's often occur to be and my colleagues at Cable & Wireless would be a better fit with British Telecom supporting their increasingly successful BT Global Services organisation.

Here is an interesting if not terribly well-informed article posted on interactive investor on the 16th which goes into rather more details. The comment that Cable & Wireless is the provider of choice for 70 of the FTSE 100 companies is terribly wide of the mark, after years of decline Cable & Wireless is left as one of the many, many, many, providers that service the U.K.'s largest companies.  Don't believe the PR spin Cable & Wireless's position amongst these organisations is way behind that of BT Group and Verizon.

Fragmented services business makes UK operators takeover targets

As their economy stumbles in and out of recession and the pound weakens against almost everything but the Green-back, the UK telecoms market must look like a great place to pick up bargains if you're a service provider looking to break into the European market. 
See this article in Global Telecoms Business that we contributed to recently; complete with diagram showing the fragmented nature of UK IP access market.

If I were TATA, SingTel or China Telecom I would start by acquiring key assets in the UK.  Especially where there was access to international submarine cabling.

Why?

For those of you not familiar with the history of UK telecoms: Deregulation in the late 1980's, followed by early adoption of Internet, as an alternative to Frame-Relay or ATM networks, led to tens of billions of $'s being invested in Fiber Networks up and down the country around most major cities by extremely well funded startups.   There was also massive investment by the likes of Global Crossing, Verizon, Cable & Wireless and AT&T in sub-marine cabling linking the UK to the US, Europe, the Middle East and Africa

After the euphoria of the 90's tech bubble 'run-riot' abated most of these companies went bust and there assets were acquired for very little from the liquidators, and they've since been run as profitable low overhead.

This has however left the market extremely fragmented with a large amount of highly valuable infrastructure split amongst a myriad of small (in xSP terms).  We recently saw a Service Provider in London with a metropolitan fibre network that would probably cost £100m to replace sold for about £7m crazy, but that's UK accounting :0)

But surely this stuff is available in mainland Europe!  Well to a lesser extent yes but the UKs regulatory environment is more friendly, I cannot imagine the French or German Governments allowing key national infrastructure to be sold off to foreign companies - whereas the UK seems to positively revel in overseas ownership of utilities.  See T-Orange merger

Global Telecoms Business is a good source of markets information - we'd recommend taking a look at their site.

CW to spin-out DEMON Internet

In acquiring THUS, CW got it's hands on a mighty NextGEN network, major MPLS infrastructure and associated high value customer-base, datacentres, a sticky product set, skilled engineering team etc. Essential elements in taking on BT & Verizon in the modern enterprise.

As with any house sale they also got some bits they don't want; where as most of us would have put those on eBay or dropped them off at the tip - reports are coming in that CW management have appointed Rothchild to help them clear out the cupboards. Which almost certainly means Broadband ISP Demon Internet is up for sale. Suggestions of a £75-£80m asking are being floated - a nice 'find' as the daytime presenters would say.

But if history is anything to go by I expect CW to find a lot more value than just the sale price. Those of you with half decent memory will remember Bulldog the CW subsidiary voted as 'Britains worst broadband provider'. After Pluthero and the Energisers got hold of it they sold off Bulldogs customers in a deal that ensured the acquiring company had to lease network from CW in order to serve them.

So, I expect more of the same. Double's all round!

Further BT Job Cuts 15,000, this year and more in 2010

Things continue to look gloomy for BT. This mornings announcement seems to have been a bigger surprise than had been expected.

BT suffered a 40% slump in pre-tax profit during the fourth quarter, forcing the firm to slash its dividend and announce plans to axe another 15,000 jobs. Fourth quarter pre-tax profit plunged to £429m from £714m a year ago and by 21% for the full year to £2.08bn.

The firm also reminded us that it had cut 15,000 posts in the last 12 months, 5,000 more than they said they would. This morning they joined Banks & Miners amongst the FTSE's largest fallers.

BT's stated aim is to cut the jobs through natural wastage, non replacement and voluntary redundancy and had no plans for compulsory lay-offs. With some suggestion that it'll be even more agency staff going.

Next Generation Communications platforms, Ethernet-based solutions, unified communications applications, and International Private Leased Circuit (IPLC) are key are to BTs ability to compete at home and abroad. BT cannot afford to fall behind the innovation curve

It seems to me that the right thing to do no matter how painful is to follow C&Ws lead - look at the skills they absolutely must have in their company and organise their people accordingly.

THUS Customerbase: Geographic Distribution

THUS Telecom (whose recent acquisition by C&W went almost un-noticed) were famous for having a strong base of customers in Scotland and the North-West. So here is a picture of our GUI showing their customers in London area plotted on a Google Map.

THUS it came to pass, that CW finally squared up to BT...

For a couple of years we've felt Cable & Wireless has been heading in 'sort of' the right direction; focusing on profitable customers, core product lines, win-able business, etc. along with some pretty radical structural and staffing changes.

However, patience seemed to be wearing a bit thin after a business update for City analysts back in March this year, comments were made along the lines of "... this is all good stuff; but on this business plan, we don;t think you can turn it around fast enough!" Here's the presentation, and what you won't see in there, is any reference to plans to grow the customer base in SMB, mid-market, business broadband, or increased infrastructure investment in the UK.

I guess the city feedback must have focused minds on shorter term revenue generation. For just 6 weeks later, in a stunning volte-face CW announced plans to acquire THUS Telecom; possibly the most successful mid-market ISP in the country, Bringing with it customers in each of those categories, as well as £450m in new revenues, some tasty data centres, a mass of IP services expertise and a country wide NextGen IP network.

The change in the market place is profound. BackChannels own research data shows that over the last two years the "re-Energised" C&W has turned the corner; increasingly good at serving the larger corporate market, with significant project wins and a marked decrease in customer churn, they are starting to give Verizon and Sprint a run for their money. In the UK market the merged company forms the only broad-spectrum competitor to BT.

The ability of C&Ws management to listen to its shareholders and then to turn the whole company on a dime, must be keeping a few people awake over at BT Centre.

Hmm... Wonder what they'll do with Demons broadband customers :0)

Wall Street Crash: Upcoming Telco Chaos

With the sudden and forced mergers of some of the worlds largest financial institutions, Telco and ISP major accounts teams will be preparing themselves for several months of travel, client meetings and late nights as they try to make sense of their position in the combined entities.

As overnight bags are stuffed and expense forms dusted off; here are some highlights of the fun to come.

Lloyds TSB has strong links to both C&W and BT.However, the major accounts team at C&W will be less than pleased to find that BT's position has been enhanced by virtue of BT being IP Services provider of choice at HBOS.
On the voice & legacy data side, things are likely to be more complicated, as with 3yrs still to run on Lloyds $1Bn outsource agreement with IBM, you can be sure that the IBM account team will be lobbying hard to get access to HBOS' branch network; currently supplied by "...strategic partner, BT"

That C&W takeover of THUS Telecom people are talking about

As the 30th June deadline looms and THUS Management remain coy about their plans, we take a look at how a combined CW/THUS entity would address the IP services market in the UK.
In this graph we see the customers of each player by turnover. The first thing that strikes you is that where CW is weaker than the market average (0 on the 'Y' axis), THUS is stronger and vice-versa. A combined entity would have a significant increase in market strength across the whole business IP services market.

CWs undeniable success in controlling costs, reducing unplanned churn, and bringing its customer base back to those it finds most profitable to serve; has led to a fall in its 'overall' market strength. It's position in the profitable £2m-£20m Turnover bracket is particularly effected, see below.
For CW being able to leverage THUS' position amongst this group could quickly address the concerns that some analysts recently expressed that CW has pulled back too far, too fast.

Given that unlike India, Big Vision in UK Telco sadly took a pasting in the 2001 crash, What is the Pluthero vision that is big enough to accommodate the acquisition of THUS?

THUS is a strong company, has a lot of potentially profitable customers, a UK wide NextGen powered network, and growing reputation for delivering value to customers & shareholders. CW, is a global brand, has a focus on increasing profit per customer, and access to a global network which makes them increasingly attractive to multinationals transitioning from legacy to all IP NextGen services.

My opinion is that both companies are growing in strength and left to it would thrive independently; together the potential is extraordinary.

New Corporate ISP League Table for 2008

Our New Corporate ISP League Table for 2008, can be picked up free from our here.

This is our January 2008 baseline. It shows you exactly where the UKs largest companies sourced their Internet Services on the 20th of January, 2008.

Your chance to catch up with BT's ongoing battle with Verizon for the top slot. The new league table has been widened to include the Internet services of the companies that make up the "FTSE All Shares Index", including BAe, Tesco and Tomkins.

The big news is, that as the Internet services market suffer it's heaviest downturn since the Tech' Crash, UK based service providers are once again struggling to compete with their US counterparts.

Register when you pick up the league tables and we will send you the figures as soon as we have them.

CW: PanAm or VirginAtlantic

This weeks analyst call was a toughie for CWs pilgrim and his team of Energisers. I just watched webcast; skip the bit about the Caribbean, it's all phone minutes.

Times Online reported one analyst saying: “Their plans are far too long term for this market. They need a quicker fix than this.” Mate! Go find something else to analyse! If you haven't worked out that there is no quick fix for telco, you're' in the wrong job.

It's not a CW specific problem; it is the same for all the Telco's: After 100yrs of selling voice minutes somebody invented the Internet, and that's having the same effect that airliners had on oceanliners. Massive increase in traffic, loads of competition, and a huge drop in revenues per head as customer choice expands.

In todays financial markets this is a recipe for volatility, and volatility = risk. SO, vicious circle; everyone's risk averse, so everyone's looking for the quick fix, and there isn;t one. The answer for the service providers is to sell core services, to valuable customers over their own networks, and, once they have those customers keep them. Not so simple as it sounds.

After years of volatility, crashing stock prices and stranded passengers; the airline industry introduced Revenue Management in the '80's. They filled their planes with the customers who provided the best economic return. First class, business, early bookers, flexi-tickets, block bookers, loyalty card holders, late bookers all became categories that were given quota's, and managed using sophisticated booking models. They didn't invent anything, or come up with fabulous new killer services! They just provided a core service and managed their customers more effectively.

Telco's must do what the airlines did, introduce Revenue Management and fill their networks with valuable customers. It was realising this fact about 4 years ago that caused us to give up the day job and start BackChannel.

So, CW, PanAm or Virgin Atlantic? Personally, left to it's own devices I think CW has the potential to become a truly global telecoms provider; they have the network, the services, the contacts and the mindset to do the job. Question is; Do they have the time?

Pipex Business to lose prime asset - It's name!

Tiscali's acquisition of the Pipex Broadband last year, has had an interesting knock on. It appears that as part of the deal Tiscali acquired the PIPEX brand; so the business end of the operation has got to change it's name. The new name for PIPEX Business is apparently Vialtus .

It's been a long journey for the PIPEX name, since the Monday morning in 1991 when the original founder, Peter Dawe, bounced into my office and said "hey Steve; Public IP Exchange - PIPEX, what do you reckon?!" I doubt it mattered what I thought, but he was clearly excited. For weeks he had been struggling to find a really "meaningful and pointy" name for the UKs first commercial Internet services provider.

Despite many changes of hands, PIPEX has remained a benchmark of the UK internet scene; justifiably known for it's quality products, support and services ethos. Pipex continued to grow business customers even as it became better known for its consumer offerings.

Losing such an established brand identity is a big issue for any business. But for an established ISP, ouch!! Ofcom reference over 500 ISPs in the UK; even when you take out those who are just reselling other peoples services, it's still over 170 competitors servicing UK business.

The market is overcrowded, economic situation is tightening and competition for corporate customers is now from international players like AT&T, Colt, Verizon and Rackspace. Even with a big bag of money from the sale of the consumer business; it's a brave time to launch a new brand.

So what next, well with the PIPEX name gone we think another power brand is likely to step in and pick up the business; as well as a lot of customers it has some very desirable physical assets.

Cable & Wireless, THUS, and Oakley Capital have all been named as possible suitors. Given their stated strategy of shedding customers, it would be mixed signals to the city from C&W, Oakley would probably want it for "parts", increasingly successful UK operator THUS would seem to make much more sense.

Who knows, BT might even re-enter the fray; our latest research data, published next week, shows it could sorely use a couple of percent more market share in it's ongoing battle for corporate IP customers with US giant Verizon.